COVID-19 Health and Economy Model

Our Research

We have developed a predictive model for COVID-19 that considers, for the first time, its intercoupled effect on both economic and health (deaths and hospitalizations) outcomes for different quarantine policies.

We analyzed three different scenarios and concluded that the best policy to balance health and economic outcomes after an initial lockdown, would be to keep seniors in place and release non-seniors only gradually and after the first pandemic wave is over.

Furthermore, we performed a sensitivity analysis to study the effect of reducing the contagiousness of asymptomatic infected individuals. Our results suggest that public health measures that restrict disease spread outside of quarantine (e.g., social distancing, masks, avoiding crowded places) are important for policymakers to invest in.


A diagram summarizing the results of our research for three scenarios (the Source, WUSTL, May 8, 2020).