In order to start going beyond capacity factors, we performed a simple case study on southern California to understand site selection of solar capacity with electrical capacity. Using the SAM software, we were able to calculate the capacity of the San Diego area and perform a basic feasibility analysis for one area to develop solar power based on the existing electrical transmission and land use maps. With SAM, we were also able to calculate costs and the financial feasibility of a site. (click on the following figures to magnify)
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM Agencies) are currently working on a project in several Southwestern states to evaluate potential sites for solar development. One of their “Solar Energy Study Areas” coincides with a free location on the maps obtained from LS Power. The site is displayed on the previous figures as a red outlined triangle in the southern Imperial County border with Mexico. We chose it because of its location next to a 500kW line, proximity to many substations for easy transmittance to local loads, and availability of 12,830 acres of available land. The following Google Map shows the satellite image of the site.
We tabulated the results of the SAM to understand what energy and financial parameters are integral to feasibility and application of solar power. The PVWatts model was used for a 1 MW PV system with 2-axis tracking and financials based on a commercial market, standard loan. The summary of actually applying a PV system to this site is summarized here:
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Capacity Factor (%)
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22.475689
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AC Output (kWh), Annual
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1968870.34
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LCOE(real)
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7.856334
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Net Present Value ($)
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-220637.435
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Payback (years)
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23.063259
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Federal ITC ($)
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1112400
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While we have discussed Capacity Factor and AC Output, in this example we get to see a fairly high and promising capacity factor for Industry Standard capacity factor calculation. The financial analysis of site begins with the value of the LCOE or the Levelized Cost of Energy. This number represents the minimum price at which energy must be sold for an energy project to break even. The Net Present Value (NPV) captures all project costs and savings as they occur over time, and converts them into a single dollar amount. The Payback value is the number of years for the energy produced to value the cost of the system. The Federal ITC is a tax credit to make projects like this more feasible.
Considering the site selection factors of electrical capacity and high capacity factor of the system itself, this looks like a feasible project. However, financial system modeling helps give us understanding that capacity is not the only variable. Because the NPV value is a very negative number, changes must be considered to the type of system, the payback structure, or the size of the structure for a specific application. Thus, it is important to understand that feasibility comes through data analysis as well as practical modeling.
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